Markets are underestimating the demand shock from COVID-19, and companies cannot sustain their solvency even if 90% of business returns because they don’t have the profit margins to overcome a negative 10% revenue decline. Moreover, even restoring as much as 90% of economic activity will be a challenge until we have a vaccine.
Jim Bianco was one of the first analysts to predict negative oil prices from the shutdown nearly a month before they happened, and was the first to realize that the Fed’s balance sheet increase in 2008-09 would have a huge positive effect on securities prices. Bianco's presentation, 'The 90% Recovery', is essential viewing for investors in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jim Bianco | Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.
Jim appears regularly on CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox Business, and is often featured in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Grants Interest Rate Observer, and MarketWatch. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham.
Tom Mahoney, CFA, CAIA | Tom Mahoney, CFA, CAIA is a Senior Portfolio Manager with UBS Private Wealth Management in Los Angeles and 30-year veteran of the financial services industry. Prior to joining UBS, he advised private clients with Credit Suisse, Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette, Kidder Peadbody, and E.F. Hutton & Co. After receiving his B.B.A. in Finance from the University of Wisconsin- Madison, Tom earned an M.B.A. from Pepperdine University. He completed the Private Equity and Venture Capital Program at Harvard Business School. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder and serves as President of CFA Society Los Angeles. Tom is also a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA®). He is the immediate past President and Co-Founder of the CAIA Los Angeles chapter.